Global macro

Fed rate cut expectations have been delayed and dampened since early 2024, because of resilient US growth overlaid with sticky inflation. But the US slowdown may now be in sight which is still aligned with a soft-landing scenario. We expect the Fed to cut rates in 2H2024, but the uncertain downward path of inflation will keep it in a wait-and-see mode until Sep FOMC even as other major central banks have started to ease policy.